Political Showdown: Biden's Reckoning Amidst West and RFK Jr.

A Fragile Presidency: Biden's Struggle for Relevance

In the aftermath of a tumultuous period that witnessed the messy end of the American occupation of Afghanistan in 2021, President Joe Biden found his presidency and reelection prospects hanging by a thread. The once-strong appetite for continued intervention in Afghanistan had waned among the American public, but the distressing images of the triumphant Taliban and the plight of fleeing refugees eroded confidence in Biden's leadership.

Challenges from Unlikely Rivals

The impression of a presidency that had lost control was exacerbated by persistently high inflation, media scrutiny regarding Biden's age (at 77, only three years younger than Trump), and division within the Democratic Party. This internal strife, notably fueled by conservative Democrats like Joe Manchin, who threatened to leave the party, and Kyrsten Sinema, who had already done so, posed significant hurdles for Biden. His efforts to energize his base with student debt relief were further hampered by the Supreme Court. Understandably, his approval ratings remained anemic, hovering between 38 percent and 44 percent since the fall of 2021. A recent CNN poll showed that 67 percent of Democratic voters and Democrat-leaning voters preferred an alternative to Biden as the party's nominee.

The Shifting Landscape of American Politics

Nevertheless, two factors worked in Biden's favor, solidifying his position as the likely nominee and, despite the odds, offering him a reasonable shot at reelection. First, a broad spectrum of mainstream Democratic elected officials, spanning from the progressive Bernie Sanders to the moderate Joe Manchin, rallied behind him. Although Manchin floated the possibility of an independent presidential run under the No Labels centrist movement, these endorsements affirmed Biden's stronghold. Notably, the only challenges to Biden's nomination came from long-shot insurgents: the best-selling author Marianne Williamson and the lawyer-activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Adding to this mix, academic-activist Cornel West launched a third-party presidential campaign.

The West-Kennedy Conundrum: A Boost for Biden?

The second factor favoring Biden was that, rather than capitalizing on anti-Biden sentiment, two of these insurgent campaigns embarked on a journey into the political wilderness. West faced difficulties in selecting a political party to serve as a platform for his efforts to revitalize the left. Initially aligning with the minuscule People's Party, which had limited capacity to field a presidential candidate, West then shifted to the Green Party, known for its ability to secure ballot access across several states. Eventually, he announced his candidacy as an independent. Concurrently, Robert Kennedy hinted at running independently while contemplating the possibility of joining the Libertarian Party.

Both West and Kennedy seemed to be retreating from the path that could have allowed them to wield genuine influence on the national stage: demonstrating a vibrant left-wing opposition to Biden within the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, Marianne Williamson, still in the race, had the opportunity to regain traction. This recent turn of events, for better or worse, further fortified Biden's dominance in left-of-center American politics. While it may be seen as a positive development for Biden's reelection chances, it also stifled the much-needed internal debate within the Democratic Party.

In a compelling editorial for The Nation on July 6, editor D.D. Guttenplan and magazine president Bhaskar Sunkara presented the case that Cornel West should assume the mantle of Bernie Sanders as the left-wing challenger within the Democratic presidential primary. The rationale was clear: West's reputation as a visionary thinker, a captivating orator, and his incisive critique of Biden's centrist approach could elevate the visibility of critical issues that Biden preferred to downplay or overlook.

The editorial argued, "Instead of withdrawing to the sidelines, West should seek the national stage that running as a Democrat would provide. Rather than allowing Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to leverage his family name and his following as an anti-vaccine crusader into an ersatz challenge from the left, West should present a genuine one, championing the radical solutions he has consistently advocated, particularly on matters of war and peace, which we believe our country desperately needs."

Unfortunately, political realities often override sensible editorial advice. West, in addition to his other roles, had now embraced the mantle of a politician. His path as an independent candidate, absent a party affiliation, presented formidable obstacles, given the inherent biases in the American political system against third-party candidates. There is a genuine possibility that West may not even appear on any ballots, rendering his presidential run increasingly quixotic and bewildering. It marks a melancholic shift for an activist who, had he chosen to mobilize Democratic voters seeking change, could have wielded significant influence on national politics.

For liberals who harbored concerns that West might function as a spoiler, reminiscent of Green Party candidates Ralph Nader in 2000 and Jill Stein in 2016, recent developments offer some relief. However, the apprehension surrounding spoiler candidates has consistently been overblown. The impact of left-wing third-party candidates on elections is intricate and ambiguous. There is no conclusive evidence that Stein cost Hillary Clinton the 2016 election. Instead of dwelling on potential spoilers, Democrats might better serve their cause by focusing on activating disengaged voters.

In fact, a plausible argument can be made that, rather than siphoning votes from Democratic candidates, radical challengers have the potential to galvanize alienated nonvoters. Democrats can seize this opportunity to win them over by pursuing policies that resonate with their concerns, as exemplified by Biden's partial adoption of Sanders's pledge to forgive student loan debt in 2020.

One critical aspect often overlooked in the liberal narrative of spoilers is that both Republicans and Democrats frequently contend with third-party rivals. The substantial margin of Bill Clinton's Electoral College victories in 1992 and 1996 was arguably influenced by Ross Perot's Reform Party candidacy. The Libertarian Party has long been a consistent presence on the right.

If Robert Kennedy Jr. opts to run on the Libertarian Party ticket, there is a tangible risk that he may draw votes away from Donald Trump rather than Biden. Aaron Blake, in The Washington Post, highlighted that "Kennedy is a lifelong Democrat from the country's preeminent Democratic family, but there is ample reason to believe that a third-party bid could harm Donald Trump more than Biden." This stems from Kennedy's current association with anti-vaccine views, which align more closely with the preferences of GOP voters.

Blake's analysis further underscores this point: "Republicans hold Kennedy in much higher regard than Democrats. This was apparent shortly after he launched his campaign in April, and the divide has since grown into a chasm. Recent polling from Quinnipiac University reveals that Republicans view Kennedy favorably by a 30-point margin, with 48 percent in favor and only 18 percent unfavorable. In contrast, Democrats have developed an overwhelmingly negative opinion, with just 14 percent viewing him favorably compared to 57 percent unfavorably."

Despite the marginal advantages that Biden may accrue from the trajectories of West and Kennedy's campaigns, a significant challenge looms over his bid for reelection. A notable enthusiasm deficit persists among Democrats who yearn for a viable alternative. Placing all their hopes in the battle-worn vessel of Joe Biden remains a perilous gamble, particularly in the shadow of the looming presence of Donald Trump